GOODBYE TO YOU?: Fairley, Newton considering NFL plans

Todd Van Emst/Auburn U.

Hey everyone.

It’s time for the Tigers’ top two players to make firm decisions about their 2011 seasons. Most of you, if my inbox is any indication, already have written off defensive Nick Fairley for next season. Seems like a reasonable conclusion considering he’s the most coveted NFL Draft prospect alive.

Fairley will announce his decision at Williamson High School tomorrow (Friday) at noon CST. I have confirmed that information through Auburn.

ESPN’s top draft analysts, Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay, both have placed Fairley atop their overall draft boards. It’s entirely possible that Fairley will be the No. 1 pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. If that’s the case — and Fairley is certain that a NFL lockout won’t affect things this spring — then he’d be foolish to remain in school. He’ll never get hotter than he is right now and DTs who can run-stop and rush are en vogue at the professional level.

Thank you, Ndamakong Suh.

With that said, Fairley isn’t a perfect fit for every NFL team. We’ve seen more 3-4 fronts in recent seasons and Fairley, as good as he is, really isn’t a nose. Those guys are bigger. Fairley a tailor-made tackle in a 4-3 system.

POSSIBILITY FAIRLEY RETURNS TO AUBURN: 0.0%

As for Cam Newton, things could be a little different. Though he has not yet scheduled an announcement about his plans for the 2011 season, Newton will make a decision by Saturday. This one isn’t quite as easy.

Newton’s value to an NFL team is relative to what that team wants. Some teams will consider him a franchise quarterback worth of a first-round pick. Others likely will not see it that way.

Here’s what Kiper Jr. had to say about Newton this morning:

“Going into the (BCS title game), he couldn’t afford any hiccups. He needed to have no red flags being raised because of what happened in that game. I think carrying momentum into this draft process was important. Now, he won the game. Let’s not forget about that. He’s won his whole career. He’s been winning games his whole career — no matter if it’s been at Florida, Blinn Junior College or certainly this past year at Auburn. The misfire in the end zone for the touchdown, the interception, the misfire on the deep throw to Adams that would have put that game out of reach. Those types of things, I think, are enough to say: Intangibles will develop over the next two or three months.

It’ll either be proven out that he’s fine in that area or he’s not. That, to me, is going to determine where he goes. If he’s a top-five pick, intangibles will get him there. If he’s a late first-round pick, it’s because the intangibles failed him. That’ll be decided over the next two or three months. Right now, it’s too early to determine that. The due diligence by the NFL hasn’t been done yet in that area. They’re doing that now. Certainly, Cam Newton will have a very fluid rating between now and late April. It probably won’t be solidified until after the combine and individual workouts and until we get into early April.”

So his worst-case scenario is late first round. That’s still excellent money. Also consider that coming back to Auburn means playing with an inexperienced offensive line (though I think it’ll perform better than you expect) and facing around-the-clock scrutiny. He’s no stranger to that, obviously, but that has to get old.

Plus, Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck elected to stay in school. He would have been the top quarterback, so that’s one less guy to dilute Newton’s draft value.

Why would Newton stay? He made remarkable progress beginning in late September as far as becoming a better passer. The NFL wants Newton for his passing. Gus Malzahn can help Newton refine his passing decisions and mechanics further, which could put Newton squarely atop the 2012 draft board.

POSSIBILITY NEWTON RETURNS TO AUBURN: 2%

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